Category Archives: weather

by | November 5, 2014 · 10:07 pm

A cozy fire

Bonfire season got off to a good start this year. There was just enough rain in September and early October to keep a bonfire from burning down the neighborhood and the wind would become still after dark. Most of the tree leaves fell off in three brief periods which also helped minimize risk of an out of control fire. Warm days, almost summer-like, faded into cool evenings. It was nice to get several evenings of having bonfires and not feel guilty about incomplete yard work.

November is starting out in its usual Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde self. Sharp temperature swings, gloomy skies and strong winds prevailed the first few days of the month. Now, the dreaded “s” word (snow) is creeping into tonight’s forecast, although some areas north of the metro area have enough to turn grassy areas white. Strong winds and a lack of rain the past week or so made having a bonfire impractical and dangerous.

We are the only creatures that have mastered making and, for most part, controlling fire. I have not seen any raccoons with Zippo lighters or squirrels with matches yet. Without fire, modern civilization would never flourish. Wood and stone can only build so much. Building an automobile or a computer requires fire for smelting metal ores or restructuring aromatic hydrocarbons to make polymers. Ancient civilizations thought of fire as one of the essential elements. Cultural mythologies had stories of gaining control of fire by theft from the gods or a gift from an animal. Fire gave humanity the ability to keep wild animals at bay, to harden the sharpened points of wooden spears and arrows, to cook food, and eventually, to make metal. Perhaps that is why people generally are fascinated with fire. Fire also gave humans the ability to make paper, plastic and ink which the glut of candidate signs from this year’s mid-term elections will confirm. Not every advancement is perfect.

And yes, fire can warm up a bitter cold day and light up a dark night. Cooking hot dogs, toasting marshmallows or making S’mores are an added benefit, of course. Fire is also the perfect document destruction method and is much more fun and faster than running a shredder. Gathering friends and family around a fire on a still autumn night is very relaxing and quite fun, even for the fire tender. Watching someone with a lot of camping experience keep a fire pit maintained and smiling ear to ear is one of the many benefits. There is something primal about fire, but not in a fearful way. That separates us from other creatures.

There will be some breaks in the weather and I am certain that a few more fires will burn before it is too cold to stand outside for any length of time, or the snow is too deep to trudge to the woodpile. Until then, enjoy a cozy fire and the company of loved ones.

firepit in use

Fire light, fire bright, first spark I see tonight…

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Show me a sign!

“Show me a sign!”

How many times in our lifetimes have we encountered a difficult stretch and wondered aloud if it was ever going to end, asking for a sign from above to give us hope? How many times do people turn to fortune-tellers, good luck charms, psychics or horoscopes for a hint of the future? Would we even know a divination sign if we saw one?

Humans are supposedly the only creatures capable of rational thought. Rational thought is analytical: identify, quantify, specify. During our lifetimes, we absorb a tremendous amount of information and we use that information to make decisions. We can take events from our past, remember the outcomes, and use that knowledge to make an informed decision. In most cases, past outcomes become the basis to determine the most probable outcome for a future event. Most probable, however, is not an absolute certainty. Unknown or highly unlikely outcomes called “Black Swan” events can arise, sometimes favorable, sometimes not. For example, matching all the numbers in a huge jackpot lottery on one ticket is highly unlikely, usually in excess of 120,000,000:1.

My area participates in a number of lottery games. The MegaMillions game recently had a jackpot in excess of $200 million USD. Even by taking the lump sum cash option and leaving almost half the money on the table, it would be enough for me to stay retired. A friend of mine was having an unbelievable run of positive events happening, so we joked about spending a dollar each and buying tickets. About an hour before buying my ticket, I found a four-leaf clover while out on a hike. Four-leaf covers supposedly bring the finder good luck because of a rarity of one four-leaf clover per 10,000 three-leaf clovers:

4 leaf clover

A four-leaf clover is supposedly lucky, so why didn’t I select the winning MegaMillions numbers on my ticket?

The day after the drawing, I found I had matched one number. Unfortunately, it was not enough to win anything. My friend fared worse by not matching a single number. So much for using a good luck charm to forecast the future. The odds of winning the MegaMillions lottery with one ticket is 258,890,850:1, or roughly 2,589 times as rare as finding a four-leaf clover. I saw several people carrying a lucky rabbit’s foot buying lottery tickets. How can a rabbit’s foot be lucky because it came off an animal after an unlucky event? Other animals have fared poorly in our quest for divining the Divine. Goat livers or chicken entrails, anyone? At least other divination items like crystals look nice and brewed tea leaves is a healthy beverage.

Weather forecasting is seemingly a 50/50 proposition when projecting out over a week. Many people with a minimum of weather watching experience can predict if tomorrow is warmer, colder, or wetter than today. Those same people are unable to predict tomorrow’s temperature to within 3°F accuracy or precipitation within 0.1″. For most of us, a general guide to tomorrow’s weather is enough. Some occupations require accurate weather for ten days in the future. Certain types of concrete can handle small amounts of precipitation falling while curing; too much rain can damage or destroy it. Using a crane is not advisable during high winds. Planting crops before the final frost of the season will seriously influence harvest yield.

Weather very much affects farmers. A growing season stretches out over several months and a crop destroyed by an unexpected frost or torrential rain is a substantial loss of time and money. Weather folklore came about through thousands of years of observations and noticing certain natural phenomena. Some folklore roots are more wishful thinking (or wistful thinking if the year’s crop lies in ruins) rather than solid observation. In the Upper Midwest, woolly bear caterpillar stripe size is supposedly a harbinger of the upcoming winter. Woolly bear caterpillars eventually metamorphose into Isabella tiger moths, not meteorologists. Another forecasting myth involves the groundhog. If the groundhog sees its shadow on Groundhog’s Day (February 2, exactly the halfway point between winter and spring), six more weeks of wintry weather should occur. With an accuracy of less than 40%, which is worse than the expected 50% of pure chance, perhaps the groundhog is better suited for predicting winning lottery numbers.

woolly bear caterpillar

Does this sort of stripe on a woolly bear mean a mild or frigid winter?

Remember that humans are mostly rational thinkers when they are not distracted with associating completely unrelated events into a prediction tool (see “woolly bear caterpillar” above). Accurately spotting future trends is a holy grail humanity has sought for millennia. Economic forecasts, actuarial tables, weather forecasts, and lottery number picks all strive for accuracy. Some of the supposed economic forecast signs are which team wins the Super Bowl, women’s skirt lengths, men’s underwear purchases (men choosing to “go command” must skew the data), and during the period when Alan Greenspan headed up the Federal Reserve Bank, the thickness or thinness of his briefcase.

Public safety is also at stake. Predicting the virulence and spread of a pandemic has many variables. Invasive species affect certain sectors of the economy. There is a delicate balance between erring on the side of caution and “crying wolf”. A far simpler example of future prediction is the invasive species warning sign that I saw in a park:

wild parsnip warning sign

Even though no wild parsnip is presently in the park preserve, there is a warning sign because wild parsnip spreads quickly.

There is no known infiltration of wild parsnip in the park. It does spread quickly and may appear in the near future. If people see the warning often enough, the hope is they will avoid contact with wild parsnip if or when it appears in the future.

Perhaps the best harbinger of future events is being in the present moment. Decisions made in the present influence the future. While we cannot change the past, we might change the future by being aware of the past and applying that knowledge to the present. It beats slaughtering a goat or maiming a rabbit. Be flexible with your plans because Black Swan events can and do happen. Have a good support team in place to help you through the rough times and enjoy the good times; be prepared to do the same for them.

Those of you who have a special someone in your life have won a lottery with odds exceeding 7,000,000,000:1. You have found the one person on this planet right for you, a person who makes you smile and laugh, who brightens your day when times are dark, someone whom you unquestionably trust, who supports your dreams, celebrates your victories, dries your tears and calms your fears. That is a prize more valuable than a nine-figure jackpot. Give that person a meaningful hug and I will make a 100% accurate prediction for the future: you both will smile and feel content every time it happens.

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by | October 26, 2014 · 12:58 pm
by | October 22, 2014 · 1:41 pm

What a de-leaf it is!

One of the more spectacular autumn color displays in recent memory is closing. I can tell this by the piles of leaves dropping off the trees at night. The two apple trees still have most of their leaves on them, but the other trees in the yard are mostly to totally bare. Several hours of raking and shredding leaves yielded twenty heavy 30-gallon bags of yard waste. Within three hours, the wind direction shifted and the wind speed picked up. The really tall silver maples in my neighbor’s yards are shedding leaves and I am receiving most of them. Yard work has been daily since last Thursday and will remain a daily chore until next weekend.

Losing leaves exposes all the bird nests built this year. The small Autumn Blaze maple hosted three goldfinch nests, the ash in the back yard had an oriole nest and several robin nests, and the burning bush had a cardinal nest tucked away. If this year is like previous years, the forsythia should have several chickadee and wren nests in it.

There are still a few flowers in the garden, mostly hardy chrysanthemums. The dahlias that I thought had died in the first frost rebounded and still have blooms on them. A pot of petunias and some rejuvenated pansies add some color, and the blanket flowers around the mailbox are blooming strong. One addition I am planning for next year’s garden is a New England aster. It will add some purple to go with all the yellow flowers common this time of year.

Even the weather has cooperated so far. There have been several light frosts but the temperature quickly warms up. By this time last year, there was snow on the ground and it stuck around until May. This year has had temperatures at or slightly above normal. Any precipitation that will fall for the next week will be liquid and not solid.

Another round of raking, shredding and bagging awaits. Give your special someone a meaningful hug and try to get outside and play in the leaves. You might be moved to think “What a de-leaf it is!”

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by | August 27, 2014 · 9:24 pm

Short summer’s journey into autumn

Eugene O’Neill is probably rolling in his grave with my reworking of the title of his classic play “Long Day’s Journey into Night”. The Twin Cities area shows signs of an early end to a late arriving summer. Grackle and starling flocks started forming a couple of weeks ago with mobs of hungry birds descending into yards and gardens. Some sumac bushes and maple trees have splotches of red or gold showing through the foliage. Juvenile robins display grown up feathers free of the leopard spots of their youth. Waterfowl babies are in full feathers and are the size of adults rather than waddling balls of fluff and fuzz. Hummingbirds are more frequent visitors at the feeders with an occasional quick and noisy kerfuffle breaking out. The migratory birds and butterflies are preparing for a several thousand mile trek to a place where “Snowmageddon” remains a folk tale rather than an annual six-month-long reality.

July and August have been drier and cooler than normal. Air conditioning units received a badly needed break from relentless usage in June. Road repair crews find it easier to work with hot asphalt when the heat index is not five degrees above the sun’s surface temperature and the roadways are not submerged. Cooler and drier air slowed grass growth. Mowing twice a month instead of twice a week allowed people to spend more time with loved ones and enjoy a quiet evening. Cool and dry evenings were a refreshing change to the stifling heat and oppressive humidity experienced during June’s monsoon.

With each passing day, morning and afternoon scurried a bit sooner from evening’s encroachment. Lower humidity and temperatures along with fewer severe storms directly result from this. Even though the weather this week has been more like mid-October rather than late August, the cicadas are still buzzing when the sun is out. At night, a few fireflies twinkle during their nightly journeys while the toads, tree frogs and crickets still have their evening talent shows without “sotto voce” subtlety. Listening to the cacophony without droning air conditioners is quite enjoyable.

Perhaps the late arrival of summer along with the cooler and dryer  period after June curtailed the annual Japanese beetle infestation. My rose bushes did not look like shotgun targets and there was no need to set out traps. I think I saw fewer than two dozen of the nasty little invaders this year. I will gladly take this as a win. This also ensured getting flowering red calla lilies, which the hummingbirds pay more attention to than the hummingbird feeder.

As I mentioned last week, the Minnesota State Fair is still underway. The last time I attended the Fair was around 2006 with Lucy. I have a friend who is insisting on taking me to the Fair on Saturday (OK, my arm did not need much twisting). If Saturday’s almost perfect weather forecast is accurate, and if attendance is typical for the second Saturday of the Fair, between 175,000 and 240,000 people will crowd into the Fairgrounds. The Fairgrounds itself is only 320 acres in size (one-half square mile or one-half section) so navigating through a sea of humanity is challenging. Saturday’s visit will take care of my Fair adventures until the mid-2020’s and blow my allotted junk food intake until 2375.

The State Fair ends on September 1, Labor Day. The United States considers Labor Day as the unofficial end to summer though the autumnal equinox does not occur until September 22. Families with cabins “up north” or “at the lake” enjoy on last long weekend and close it for the season. School is already in session in some districts with the remainder starting classes after Labor Day. The plaintive parental cry of “Go outside and play!” changes to “Do your homework!” Even humans adjust to the subtle season transition.

Try to enjoy some time outdoors with loved ones. Whether your transition is summer into autumn or winter into spring, notice the changes occurring. Being part of nature helps one re-energize and reduce stress. Give your special someone a meaningful hug and thank you for your time.

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by | June 22, 2014 · 9:46 pm

“Into each life some rain must fall…”

The day is cold, and dark, and dreary;
It rains, and the wind is never weary;
The vine still clings to the mouldering wall,
But at every gust the dead leaves fall,
And the day is dark and dreary.

My life is cold, and dark, and dreary;
It rains, and the wind is never weary;
My thoughts still cling to the mouldering Past,
But the hopes of youth fall thick in the blast,
And the days are dark and dreary.

Be still, sad heart! and cease repining;
Behind the clouds is the sun still shining;
Thy fate is the common fate of all,
Into each life some rain must fall,
Some days must be dark and dreary.

Henry Wadsworth Longfellow’s 1842 poem, “The Rainy Day“, is appropriate for the weather the Twin Cities is experiencing in June. We received an entire season’s rainfall in under a week and are well over a foot above normal for precipitation this year. While it definitely is not cold, the wind has been surprisingly strong and relentless this month. Drought concerns were quickly replaced with flash flood warnings and river crest information. Mudslides, sand bagging efforts, road washouts, dam failures, levee breaches, disaster declarations, and a fool guiding a kayak over Minnehaha Falls recently dominated the news. Longfellow’s poem is especially ironic because the small Minnehaha Creek island base of the statue of Hiawatha and Minnehaha at Minnehaha Falls flooded. Some rain must fall, indeed. The songbirds in my backyard are wearing hip waders and swim goggles and the mosquitoes are out in force.

Longfellow’s poem was not a weather observation. After all, it didn’t mention forecasts or reference a Doppler radar unit with a cutesy name. Despite its somber tone, the poem is an acknowledgement that life will get better after going through a dark period. In many ways, the dark periods are similar to summer thunderstorms. Some arrive with warning but fizzle out, others arise seemingly from nowhere and depart nearly as quickly, and still others linger for day upon dreary day before the sun peeks through a small hole and eventually burns away the darkness. Like a summer thunderstorm, sometimes the sun reveals damage requiring a cleanup effort. The effort is either small enough to undertake by oneself or large enough to require help from family and friends. It is important to keep the lines of communication open and keep offering to help. Sometimes knowing people are available to help is enough of a boost to begin repairs. I know I would not have made it through the past few years without a lot of support and love from my family and close friends, and from the support of people willing to help a stranger.

Thank you for taking time from your day to read my musings, and thank you for your support!

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